In recent months, the U.S. began negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement with Kenya. These negotiations are aligned with the current administration’s vision for trade reciprocity rather than unilateral trade preference programs. Although these negotiations could produce the first bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and a sub-Saharan African country, a shift from regional preferential trade agreements to bilateral free trade agreements could undermine the growth of smaller countries, who may not be of enough economic interest to the United States. Bilateral agreements could also undermine efforts to create a regional economic bloc through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)....

Southern African countries had a tough 2019. The Government of Lesotho declared a national disaster as a result of the drought which left a fourth of its population facing severe food insecurity. Zambia and Zimbabwe were hit with the worst drought in nearly 40 years, which brought the roaring Victoria Falls to a trickle, and brought millions to the brink of famine. Namibia was hit with its worst drought in 90 years and declared a State of Emergency, the second one in three years, which caused a third of its population to go hungry. Botswana declared 2018/9 a drought year and commenced distribution of relief food packages in drought-stricken parts of the country. The fiscal response needed to address the drought put additional strain on these countries. By the end of 2019, several countries in the region were facing debt distress including Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. ...

The use of GNI per capita for income classification can prevent assistance from reaching where it is needed most....

Executive Summary...

Executive Summary...

Institutional reforms should supersede focus on investments because restoring legitimacy of public institutions is critical...

Increased mechanisation and automation means SA’s number one job-creator of the past two centuries is losing top spot...

Mpumalanga is particularly vulnerable in the tug-of-war between farmers and mining giants...

Good governance and institutional reform will result in fairer prices and enable farmers to make long-term business plans....

The development of many Southern African countries is inextricably linked to the mining sector. For example, South Africa’s Johannesburg-Pretoria metropolitan area, a regional economic and financial hub, developed because of the local gold supply in the late 1800s. Yet the history of mining in Southern Africa, a region marked with high levels of inequality, is beset with controversy. In a recent report, we posed the question: what is the net benefit of mining for Southern African economies?...