Consensus points to continent being key part of mining’s future...

The U.S. government has prioritized reducing its reliance on China for critical minerals needed for national, economic, and energy security. China developed an advantage in mineral production because of decades of focused industrial policy and state support for domestic processing, manufacturing offtake, and global extraction. It succeeded at building strong supply chains by securing supply both domestically and internationally, particularly from emerging markets. For example, as of 2020, Chinese-backed companies own or have an equity stake in 15 of the 19 cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo....

South Africa’s Johannesburg-Pretoria metropolitan area developed as a result of the local gold supply in the late 1800s, and infrastructure, a financial sector and housing were built to support this booming sector. But if you travel internationally in the world of mining you’ll notice something: much of the world’s expertise in mining is from SA. ...

This is a year marked by uncertainty — 64 countries, accounting for 49% of the world’s population — are holding national elections....

The examples of Zambia and Tanzania should be followed...

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a unilateral trade preference program that was enacted by President Bill Clinton in 2000. With its authorization expiring in 2025, there is an ongoing debate on how to reform it. By adding a critical minerals agreement to the AGOA reauthorization, U.S. Congress can incentivize non-Chinese investments in both mining and processing in eligible African countries, which have key reserves of the minerals it has long turned to China for....

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Likely rate cuts from the US and India will drive up aggregate demand...

The country is deploying significant amounts of capital and fostering unprecedented levels of co-operation in the critical minerals space...

China announced a ban of rare earth extraction and separation technologies on December 21, 2023. This has significant implications for U.S. national, economic, and rare earth security. Rare earth elements—a group of 17 metals—are used in defense technologies, including missiles, lasers, vehicle-mounted systems such as tanks, and military communications. They are also used in computers, televisions, and smartphones, along with various clean energy technologies central to decarbonization....

The COP28 Global Stocktake in Dubai showed that even with all existing emissions reduction pledges, the world is still not on pace to meet the stated goal to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. A group of policymakers from developed countries has advocated for a phaseout of unabated fossil fuels to meet this goal. While this can expedite the transition for high-income countries, it can profoundly undermine the energy security of African countries who have received negligible amounts of renewable energy investment over the last decade. For these countries, natural gas is a critical energy source that offers a low emissions route to universal energy access....

Some good news for Africa is recognition that transition cannot be at expense of energy justice...

In September the United States and Saudi Arabia advanced discussions to form a partnership to boost critical minerals supply from African countries. Saudi Arabia announced that it would purchase $15 billion in global mining stakes to secure minerals from countries such as Namibia, Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, to increase critical minerals supply for domestic processing and manufacturing, in support of its ambiguous goal of producing 500,000 electric vehicles annually by 2030. Given it lacks significant critical mineral reserves, most of Saudi Arabia’s efforts to secure critical minerals have focused on developing countries....

The Issue...

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